The college football world was wishing for a March Madness type of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the four first-round matches underwhelmed, supplying plenty of time for holiday shopping. Favorites went a best 4-0 versus the spread, consisting of 3 fairly non-competitive efficiencies by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the general public do not seem to believe so. A minimum of in two cases.
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Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State function double-digit spreads preferring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has actually been an especially popular pick with the general public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in regards to overall dollars since Monday afternoon.
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"All the cash is being available in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, composed in a text message to The Athletic. "We need Arizona State to cover +13.5."
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The interest for the Longhorns reaches the futures market also. Bear in mind that huge $1.5 million wager on Texas to win it all at +390 odds? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.
Interestingly, the Longhorns' challenger, Arizona State - the greatest underdog amongst the College Football quarterfinal matches - is getting the most enjoy from sharp wagerers. The Athletic spoke to a number of bookies who had taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books against No. 5 Texas - to push the line down to -12.5 or -12.
John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, told us he got a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "extremely highly regarded player."
Although reputable money has can be found in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely need the Sun Devils to do simply that, as public wagerers are piling on Texas.
"We would love to see ASU cover, and after that Texas win the video game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee added.
While the Texas game will be big for the books, it isn't the only video game in the area. We chatted with multiple bookies to break down where the wagering action is on the other three College Football quarterfinal matchups. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State
This game opened Penn State -10.5 at many sportsbooks and has approached somewhat to an agreement of -11. sports betting on the spread is fairly divided at the majority of sportsbooks. The total dollars bet varies by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the cash at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets but just 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is presently the 2nd most popular CFP wager in terms of total tickets at BetMGM books.
"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are sitting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, told The Athletic. "I wouldn't be surprised if this line creeps up a bit more before kickoff, however I currently welcome any Boise State money."
Ohio State got the Oregon 2nd chance it desired. Are the Buckeyes prepared for revenge?
No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon
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Perhaps most surprising to the public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog against No. 8 Ohio State. These teams fulfilled back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home dog.
So why is OSU favored?
Several oddsmakers The Athletic spoke with before the CFP preliminary had Ohio State atop their power ratings, and the lookahead lines for this theoretical matchup were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker pointed out that Ohio State playing up to its power score in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee also formed his opening line.
Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point favorite (depending upon the sportsbook) in this video game before respected money pushed it to the existing line of -2.5. A slightly greater majority of wagers at several sportsbooks, approximately 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while close to 60% of the cash has been available in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle video game of the four come .
"We did take some reputable cash at -1.5, rapidly went to -2.5 where it's stayed," Gable said. "It's decent two-way action at that number right now. The overall has actually gone up three points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has actually been the most significant relocation of any of the totals. Money has actually all been on the over so far.
Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that caters to sharp bettors, informed The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point favorite, and right away our Ohio wagerers thought we were too low. Our opening rate of Ohio State -1 has been driven up to -2.5 and the total from 52 to 55."
He did note, though, that the book had seen considerable buyback at the present line of Ohio State -2.5 and that 52% of the total dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.
GO DEEPER
The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's 2nd round
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)
The preferred flipped in this game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point preferred and is currently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.
What caused the line turn? Put simply, the wagering action.
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Although Georgia's starting QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has been replaced by relative unidentified Gunner Stockton, gamblers are gravitating towards the Bulldogs.
Georgia to cover is the most popular versus the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in regards to ticket count (second-most popular by total dollars wagered), and it has actually been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at several sportsbooks.
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College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Money is Can Be Found In On Texas'
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